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02/11/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Phoenix Coyotes will try to extend their season-high win streak to five games when they host the sliding Chicago Blackhawks in tonight's clash at Jobing.com Arena.
Phoenix has posted four straight victories for the first time since its last five-game winning streak from March 10-18 of last season. The hot streak has helped lift the Coyotes into the eighth and final playoff seed in the Western Conference, where Phoenix leads Dallas and Colorado by just one point. Minnesota and Calgary are only two points behind the Coyotes in the crowded West.
Meanwhile, Chicago has fallen down to sixth in the West thanks to an 0-6-1 slide that began before the All-Star break. The Blackhawks are five points ahead of Phoenix in the conference standings.
Coyotes captain Shane Doan came through with a dramatic goal in Phoenix's most recent victory, as he scored the game-winner in overtime to lift his club to a 2-1 decision over the visiting Calgary Flames on Thursday.
Calgary's Mikael Backlund was whistled for tripping 2:07 into the extra frame and the Coyotes took advantage of the penalty with the game-winner when Radim Vrbata fed a pass from the right of the net to the top of the left circle, where Doan blasted a one-timer past Leland Irving.
Taylor Pyatt scored in regulation for the Coyotes, while Mike Smith stopped 22-of-23 shots in the win.
"You've got to find ways to get points," Coyotes head coach Dave Tippett said. "It was just not a pretty game at all so we'll take the points, stick those in the bank and move on."
The victory improved Phoenix to 13-10-4 on home ice this year and the Coyotes are wrapping a brief two-game residency tonight. Following today's tilt, the Coyotes will play four of their next six games away from the desert.
Chicago's last four setbacks have come in regulation and the Blackhawks were dealt a 5-3 loss Friday night in San Jose. Benn Ferriero's goal early in the third period proved to be the winner for the Sharks, who sent Chicago to its seventh straight defeat.
Marcus Kruger scored twice in the loss, while Bryan Bickell also lit the lamp for Chicago, which is in the midst of its worst skid since an 0-6-2 stretch from Dec. 30-Jan. 11 during the 2007-08 season. The Blackhawks also fell to 0-4-1 on a season-long nine-game road trip and Joel Quenneville's club is now just 10-13-3 as the guest this season.
"We know we can win hockey games. We have got a good team, but we just have to get our confidence back," Blackhawks forward Marian Hossa said after Friday's loss. "We have to play a team game. We win as a team and we lose as a team."
Corey Crawford allowed all five goals on 27 shots to take the loss on Friday and Ray Emery could get the start tonight.
Blackhawks defenseman Niklas Hjalmarsson sat out Friday's game with flu-like symptoms and is also questionable for tonight. Hjalmarsson has one goal, 11 assists and a plus-five rating in 54 games this season.
This evening's tilt marks the fourth and final scheduled meeting between the Coyotes and Blackhawks this year. Phoenix has taken two straight from Chicago since losing the season series opener at Jobing.com Arena on Oct. 18. The Coyotes have won four of seven overall in this series, but Chicago has taken two straight on the road.
<< Avs, Blues collide in St. Louis
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Colorado Avalanche will try to boost their playoff
chances against a tough opponent, as they visit the St. Louis Blues for
tonight's clash at Scottrade Center.
The Avalanche enter today tied with Dallas for the ninth s
<< Leafs to honor Sundin before hosting Habs
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - One of the best rivalries in professional sports will be
rekindled tonight in Toronto, as the Maple Leafs welcome the Montreal
Canadiens for a Northeast Division clash at Air Canada Centre.
Before the old Original Six foes
<< Sabres try to stay hot against visiting Bolts
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The surging Buffalo Sabres will try to post their longest
winning streak of the season tonight, when they host the Tampa Bay Lightning
at First Niagara Center.
Buffalo has notched wins in its last three outings and is one
<< Americans again stun Federer-led Swiss for Davis Cup win
Fribourg, Switzerland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The United States Davis Cup team
clinched a stunning first-round win against Switzerland on Saturday when the
doubles tandem of Mike Bryan and Mardy Fish notched a four-set victory over
the Swi
Paul has quickly turned Clippers into a contender >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - I haven't seen any signs of the meek
inheriting the earth just yet unless Matthew was talking about the Los Angeles
Clippers.
The NBA's resident doormat has gone from the outhouse to the penthouse in
almo
Flames' Blair Jones out indefinitely >>
Calgary, AB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Calgary Flames center Blair Jones is out
indefinitely after suffering a fractured ankle.
Jones suffered the injury while blocking a shot during Thursday's game against
the Phoenix Coyotes.
In 13 games
Spain eliminates Kazakhstan in Davis Cup >>
Oviedo, Spain (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Spain has again advanced to the Davis Cup
quarterfinals after the doubles team of Marcel Granollers and Marc Lopez
posted a straight-set victory over the Kazakhstan duo of Evgeny Korolev and
Yuriy S
Czechs bounce Italy out of Davis Cup >>
Ostrava, Czech Republic (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Radek Stepanek and Tomas Berdych
followed up their singles victories from Friday with a doubles triumph
Saturday to send the Czech Republic past Italy and into the Davis Cup
quarter
While the NFL is the sport wagered on the heaviest, college football betting lines has become more and more popular as people realize it’s a game that can be beat. The NCAA football season gets longer each year with the addition of numerous bowl games and with that comes more opportunities for more money in your pocket, if handled correctly.
Betting on college football is not the same as with the NFL, so make sure you separate the two. Because of the vast number of teams, the parity between college football programs is slight and thus, you are going to see some high numbers in the NCAA. Teams favored by more than 40 points are not uncommon especially early in the season when teams playing their non-conference schedules.
The best advice when trying to tackle these enormous spreads and is to just stay away. A team that is favored by 40 points is favored by that many for a reason while teams getting 40 points are bad enough that they shouldn’t be touched. Set yourself a spread limit. Getting rid of these games will cut down on the number of contests that you need to handicap while staying away from backdoor or front-door covers.
What is a backdoor and front-door cover you ask? A backdoor cover is a team that is getting beat by more than the spread, but scores late to get within that number thus covering the spread. A front-door cover is just the opposite where the favorite scores late and covers the number they are favored by.
These front-door and backdoor covers are common when second and third string players enter games in college football and it can be the worst nightmare for some bettors. These players can also be your best friend, but ask any bettor and he will give you more instances on losing in this situation than winning. It just seems to work out that way even though everything evens out in the end.
College football betting has some of the softest lines of any sport and it’s being able to find these lines that will make you a successful college football handicapper. The NFL and NBA have the tightest lines around and while those sports can be beat by looking at situations and systems, college football doesn’t quite work that way. It’s much more manual, but when done correctly, it’s much more gratifying as well.
Getting into the nuts and bolts of college football means looking at the many stats in order to beat the number. As opposed to pro football, college football is less dependent on situations and angles and more on certain statistics. Rushing offense and defense, pass efficiency offense and defense and turnover margins are huge. These are vital in the NFL, but even more so when it comes to college football.
Being able to run the ball in college football has always been a key factor in the overall success of a team. The same adage also goes for teams who have the ability to stop the run. Putting these two factors together can produce some positive results in a team’s record both straight up and against the spread. These numbers show huge differences in teams and the spread may not take those into effect, which is where the value comes into play.
Passing yardage numbers both for and against can be a misinterpreted statistic. However, pass efficiency has always been one of the best ways to look at a teams’ passing game ability both offensively and defensively. But is it really a true indication of how they perform? I wouldn’t say so since they are raw passing numbers with nothing else taken into consideration.
I use pass efficiency ratings when doing my handicapping but I adjust my numbers based on a number of factors including power ratings, strength of schedules, personnel and injuries. This gives a much better picture of a team’s ability to pass effectively and also being able to defend the pass. Tweaking pass efficiency stats instead of raw passing yards is the key.
Turnovers are the single most frustrating, and at times the most gratifying, aspect of a college football lines, mostly because they are so unpredictable. They are part of the game and most of the time nothing can be done to control them. However, turnovers are contagious and they can carry over from game to game and season to season.
It’s important to know how to forecast these unforeseen events and how to use them to your advantage. You can find ways to give yourself an edge by looking at past histories of teams and coaches and how they have fared in turnover wars in the past. Instead of turnovers hurting you at the wrong times, find ways to use them to your advantage.
As you can see, college football handicapping is very labor intensive and isn’t just based on where teams are ranked in the AP and coaches polls. Experience, coaching and match-ups are all important since unlike the NFL, college teams turn over much more often with new personnel at most positions every single year. Keeping current on this information is vital.
Betting NCAA football can be lucrative if done correctly, but more importantly, it’s just plain enjoyable because it can be beat. College football is one of the best sports to watch with some of the best rivalries taking place in all of sports. The only downfall is that a championship isn’t decided on the field but on a computer-based system that is the Bowl Championship Series. That will change someday and we will all be better off for it.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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