Stars aim for rare win in Buffalo

Hockey Betting Lines

02/10/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Dallas Stars have yet to win the back end when playing games on consecutive nights. That won't make ending their lengthy losing streak in Buffalo any easier.

The Stars try to pick up their first road win against the Sabres in over 14 years, but in addition to having some tired legs they'll also likely be going up against the returning Thomas Vanek.

Dallas is coming off last night's 4-2 victory at Columbus in which the club used a fast start to roll to its fourth victory in six games. Jamie Benn scored just 1:35 into the game, Alex Goligoski lit the lamp less than three minutes later and Stephane Robidas scored early in the second.

Benn added his second goal of the night on an empty-net tally and Kari Lehtonen made 26 saves while allowing a pair of power-play goals for the Stars, who still sit two points back of a playoff spot despite the win. Dallas is tied with Minnesota and Calgary for the ninth spot in the Western Conference.

"It was a big start, getting those two goals was huge. Getting some momentum on the road for our team was big. You definitely want that in the first period," said Benn, who has four goals and two assists over his past five games.

It was a good sign for Dallas as it came two nights after a lackluster 4-1 setback to Phoenix.

"I think our work ethic was a lot better tonight," surmised Goligoski.

Dallas is playing on back-to-back nights for the 10th time this year and improved to 5-4-1 in the first half of those contests. However, the Stars are 0-8-1 in the second half of that scenario.

The Stars will look to break that trend tonight and earn their first regular- season victory in Buffalo since Oct. 7, 1997. They are 0-5 with a tie in six trips since, though they did snap a five-game series losing streak to the Sabres with last season's 4-0 home win.

The Sabres await the Stars coming off perhaps their best game of the season. Buffalo hosted the defending Stanley Cup champion Boston Bruins on Wednesday and sent the Northeast Division leaders out of town with a 6-0 loss. Ryan Miller made 36 saves to record his second shutout in three games, third of the season and 25th of his career.

Jason Pominville scored twice and Tyler Ennis had a goal and an assist in the win. Christian Ehrhoff, Patrick Kaleta and Drew Stafford all scored for the Sabres, who improved to 4-0-1 since losing eight of nine. Miller has a 0.95 goals-against average and .969 save percentage over that point streak, which is the longest for Buffalo since it ended last season on a 5-0-1 run.

"I thought our guys really raised their compete level the last four or five games," Sabres head coach Lindy Ruff said. "We've really played hard and had some things start to go well."

Ruff watched Wednesday's game from the press box after breaking three ribs in a collision with Jordan Leopold at practice on Monday.

Buffalo is hoping to win three in a row for the first time since a four-game burst from Nov. 4-11 and could have Vanek back after he sat out the past three games with an upper-body injury. He practiced with the team again on Thursday and said he hoped to return to action on Friday.

"We put him through a battery of extra tests there after practice. We'll see how he's feeling in the morning," said Ruff. "He's the only one who really knows whether he can go or not. If he said he's ready to go, and doesn't have any ill effects from what happened today, then he'll be back in."

Vanek is tied with Pominville for the team lead with 19 goals and is second in assists (22) and points (41).

The Sabres won the opener of a four-game homestand and are playing eight of their next nine as the host. They are 5-0-4 in their past nine at home.

Miller is 3-0-0 with a 2.59 GAA lifetime versus the Stars.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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